Released on: May 7, 2008, 5:44 am

Press Release Author: Dr mahendra Shah

Industry: Environment

Press Release Summary: Today the developing world is at the brink of a food crisis
as stocks reach historical low levels and international food commodity prices have
risen in the last 3 years at unprecedented rates, main causes being in part
below-normal harvests, increased cereal demand for food and feed, and current
inadequate and uncoordinated policies regarding the increasing use of crop land for
bio-energy crops. Climate change is expected to cause further significant declines
in crop and pasture production in many countries. An additional 35 to 170 million
people could be undernourished in the second half of this century because of climate
change with 17 to 50 million of these in Sub-Saharan Africa. Many of the affected
countries are already food insecure and poor, with low capacity to finance food
imports

Press Release Body: Climate Change and biofuels to cause further hunger in Africa
Embargoed until 13.15 pm (EDT) 8 May 2008


An additional 35 to 170 million people could be undernourished in the second half of
the century because of climate change with 17 to 50 million of these in Sub-Saharan
Africa. Climate change is expected to cause significant declines in crop and pasture
production in over a third of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa according to new
research from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
The research will be presented today at a side event at the UN Commission on
Sustainable Development in New York. Findings show how more than 10% of land in
Sub-Saharan Africa is at risk of being lost for maize, the most important staple
food crop, production due to environmental constraints induced by climate change.
Many of the affected countries are already food insecure and poor, with low capacity
to finance food imports, and their situation has been worsened substantially by
current inadequate and uncoordinated policies toward tackling climate change, namely
using crop land to grow biofuels with environmental risks and only modest greenhouse
gas benefits.
"The absurd biofuel policy has contributed to the doubling of staple food prices in
the last two years," says Mahendra Shah, Senior Scientist from the study which was
carried out by the Land Use Change and Agriculture Program at IIASA. "Price rises do
not cause hunger in developed countries where on average people spend less than 15%
of their consumption expenditure on food. But in many developing countries over 70%
of the household budget is for food."
The IIASA research highlights how the fragility of Africa's agro-ecosystems makes it
vulnerable to changes in climate. By the 2080s, arid and semi-arid areas in Africa
will have increased by 5-8%. In contrast climate change is likely to favor areas
such as North America with increases in land suitable for cereal production.
In terms of crop production, Africa will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate
change. Yet the continent has contributed very little to the problem. Sub-Saharan
Africa with about 10% of the world's population currently contributes some 2.4% of
CO2 emissions and its share over the last 50 years of the world's cumulative CO2
emissions is less than 2%.
The food insecurity in sub Saharan Africa is high on the world development agenda.
For example in 2005 the G8 summit with great fanfare announced a new aid and
development deal for Africa. And yet a year latter instead of increasing aid by a
promised 10%, the reality turned out to be one where aid declined by more than 10%.
In spite of ample economic evidence that developed country agricultural subsidy
polices harm the plight of poorest agriculturalist in developing countries, any hope
of these policy reforms remain elusive.
The current biofuel polices in these same countries has put many developing
countries on the brink of a food crisis. More than a hundred million people have
been added in just 2 to 3 years to the chronically hungry 820 million people in the
developing world. For over five decades the world community has failed to deliver on
the universal human right to food, endorsed repeatedly at world summits and
conferences. And the tragedy is that the worst of food insecurity is yet to come
due to climate change in the 21st century.

The side event, 'Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture the Challenges of Climate
Change in Sub-Saharan Africa' has been organized by the following partners:
. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria
. African Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi, Kenya
. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome,
Italy
. Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water
Management, Government of Austria, Vienna, Austria

Contacts:
For further information and a copy of the research paper, 'Food Security and
Sustainable Agriculture the Challenges of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa'
please contact:
. Mahendra Shah, Senior Scientist, IIASA on shah@iiasa.ac.at or +43 676 471 8731
. Guenther Fischer, Program Leader, IIASA on fisher@iiasa.ac.at or +43 2236
807 292
. Nina Drinkovic, Communications Officer, IIASA on drinkov@iiasa.ac.at or +43
(0) 2236 807477
. Iain Stewart, Head of Communications, IIASA on stewart@iiasa.ac.at or +43
(0) 2236 807433


Web Site: http://www.iiasa.ac.at

Contact Details: Dr Mahendra Shah
IIASA
1 Schloss Platz
A 2361 Laxenbrug Austria
tel +432236807508
fax +43 223671313
shah@iiasa.ac.at